Ecologia, Medio Ambiente y Energias Renovables en la Naturaleza

The large hike in emissions is deemed to be caused by the continued use of polluting energy sources unabated by projects and policies that seek to cut down the heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions they emit.

The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommends that global greenhouse gas emissions, blamed to cause climate change, should be reduced by at least 50 percent compared with 1990 levels by 2050 to avoid warming the planet 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and extreme weather.

To date, no concrete agreement has yet been reached on how to meet the goal amid differences in methods and baselines between developed and developing countries.

"In the likely absence of an early and widespread deployment of carbon capture and storage, there will be an increase in global annual carbon dioxide emissions," the group, representing 12 of the world's top petroleum exporting countries, said in its annual report published yesterday.

Commercial primary energy demand may increase 51 percent over the next 24 years, with fossil fuel accounting for 82 percent of the total. Fossil fuel use accounts for 57 percent of all carbon dioxide emissions from human activity, according to an I.P.C.C. report published in 2007.

Oil will account for the largest share among energy sources for most of the period but will be overtaken by coal in 2035. Coal will represent 29 percent of fossil fuels' total by that time while oil's share will fall from 34 percent to 28 percent, according to the report.

As for emissions, developed and developing nations -- known under the Kyoto Protocol as Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 countries respectively -- will be about equal by 2012. By 2035 the latter will account for 65 percent of the global total while Emissions by Annex 1 nations will be 2 percent below 1990 levels by thar time, the group added.

U-turn

The assumed big demand for fossil fuels by 2035, however, could fall if nations worldwide take action to cut greenhouse gases, OPEC said. Though the group did not cite numbers, it described the decrease to be "substantial."

"Inevitably, severe abatement targets would significantly impact oil demand," the group mentioned in the report.

More than 190 nations will discuss possible emission reduction rules to be enforced after 2012 at the U.N. climate summit in Durban, South Africa, starting November 28 this year. Possible new rules agreed upon in the summit will see to it that targets for developed countries under the Kyoto Protocol, set to expire next year, are met.

"If a strict GHG regime were to emerge, one which attached additional costs to upstream and downstream operations, then this would typically have a negative impact upon future demand and supply growth, and, in all probability, upon oil prices and costs," it added.

Transportation in developing countries, for instance, was identified as crucial for the future demand of oil, accounting for close to 90 percent of the sector's increase over the 24-year period when it reaches 110 million barrels per day.

With more aggressive support for alternative fuels, electric and hybrid cars and fuel economy policies like ones used in the United States - all of which are key mitigation options most likely to be used after Kyoto - OPEC estimates that oil demand will be cut by 7.3 million barrels per day.

"This underscores that OPEC upstream investment requirements are subject to huge uncertainties, and demonstrates clearly the genuine concerns over security of demand," said OPEC.

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