It reported sea surface temperature anomalies above 7.2\u00b0F (4.0\u00b0C) in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific. In the Ni\u00f1o-3.4 region of the central Pacific, the anomaly reached 3.8\u00b0F (2.1\u00b0C). Deep in the eastern Pacific, the water ran more than 18\u00b0F (10\u00b0C) above average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The center also found westerly wind anomalies near the surface and extra rainfall from the central to the eastern Pacific, while rain stayed suppressed over Indonesia. “Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a strengthening El Ni\u00f1o,” the forecasters wrote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A record event needs a three-month index value of 4.5\u00b0F (2.5\u00b0C) or more, the center said. Such an event would beat every El Ni\u00f1o back to 1950. NOAA puts the odds at 54 percent for September to November and 83 percent for October to December. For November to January the figure drops to 70 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Forecasters were already discussing a possible super El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> in April. NOAA declared El Ni\u00f1o conditions<\/a> in a June 11 synopsis. A huge mass of warm Pacific water<\/a> kept spreading through the summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n NASA’s PACE satellite tracks ocean color. PACE stands for Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem. It launched in 2024, and this is the first El Ni\u00f1o it has watched.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Its Ocean Color Instrument records several hundred wavelengths of visible, near-infrared and ultraviolet light. Researchers boil those readings down to one number, the apparent visible wavelength. It stands for the ocean’s average color.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Equatorial Pacific waters have turned measurably bluer over the last several months, NASA said. On the 2026 map, the green strip along the equator in the western Pacific shrinks as blue fills in. On the 2025 map the strip holds steady.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Matthew Kehrli is a lead research scientist for the PACE team at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. “Some people think of water as being just blue, but it’s amazing the multitude of colors the ocean can be,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The green comes from phytoplankton, the microscopic plants at the base of the marine food web. “There are thousands of different species of phytoplankton, which come in shades like teal, brown, or green,” NASA wrote. “This year, in areas of the Pacific Ocean along the equator that are typically lush with phytoplankton and greener as a result, these hues are waning.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n Phytoplankton thrive in cool, nutrient-rich water. During El Ni\u00f1o the weaker trade winds bring less deep, nutrient-rich water to the surface. Phytoplankton numbers drop, according to NASA, and other marine life may move to new feeding grounds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n “You have expectations of what you would think would happen,” he said. “But to visually see the results with the data products that you’re working with in real time is gratifying.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n NOAA released its U.S. Winter Outlook<\/a> on October 15 as well. It covers December 2026 to February 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The outlook favors a warmer than average winter across the northern U.S. It leans wet across the South, from California to Florida, and along the Eastern Seaboard.<\/p>\n\n\n NOAA expects drought to improve or end by late January in four areas. They are the Southwest, the Southern Great Plains, the Southeast and parts of the East Coast. Drought could develop or worsen in parts of the northern Rockies, northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, linked the pattern to the jet stream. “As we know from decades of observations, a very strong El Nino will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S., which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South,” Graham said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n “While higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to drought-afflicted areas, too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides,” Graham said. “Now is the time for communities and individuals to plan ahead for the upcoming winter.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Weather Service is changing some warnings this season, too. It will add “Particularly Dangerous Situation” wording to select Blizzard Warnings and Ice Storm Warnings. NOAA says the language flags “high-confidence blizzards or ice storms of historic severity.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Climate Prediction Center adds its own caveat. “With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Ni\u00f1o are larger, though not guaranteed,” the center wrote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The winter outlook only gives odds for above, near or below average temperature and precipitation. It skips snowfall. NOAA says snow is generally not predictable more than a week ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Hawaii and much of the Southwest get equal odds of a cooler, normal or warmer winter. The northern Plains and the Ohio Valley get equal odds on precipitation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n NASA plans to keep watching the event with its Earth-observing satellites. “El Ni\u00f1o touches almost all of us in some way every time it occurs,” Willis said. “While many have seen what it can do, we look to the ocean to understand why.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n NASA published the satellite findings on October 15, 2026, in “NASA Satellites Observe Historic 2026 El Ni\u00f1o<\/a>,” with the full set of Scientific Visualization Studio maps<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n NOAA’s next ENSO discussion is due November 12. Its next three-month outlook comes out November 19.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Photo: NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" In January 2026, satellites spotted a swell of warm water near Micronesia, in the western Pacific Ocean. By October, NOAA’s … <\/p>\nPACE sees bluer water<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"NASA](\"https:\/\/www.ecoticias.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/pacific-ocean-color-pace-2025-2026.jpg\")
A wetter South and a warmer North<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"NOAA](\"https:\/\/www.ecoticias.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/noaa-winter-precipitation-outlook-2026-2027.jpg\")
What NOAA leaves open<\/h2>\n\n\n\n