Public debt rarely makes front page news compared with inflation or jobs, yet it quietly shapes everything from interest rates to the future of pensions. A new ranking by economic analysts at FocusEconomics shows which governments carry the heaviest load in 2025 and how that burden is changing.
In this ranking, Japan sits at the top with public debt equal to about 242 percent of its economic output, followed by Singapore at 173 percent and Eritrea at around 210 percent.
The top ten also include Greece, Italy, Sudan, Bahrain, the Maldives, the United States and France, and the presence of Arab countries such as Sudan and Bahrain underlines how oil dependence and conflict can push debt levels higher for very different reasons. What does that map of heavy borrowers really tell us in 2025?
How public debt is measured and why it matters
Public debt is the total amount a government owes to those who have lent it money, usually through bonds bought by banks, pension funds or ordinary savers at home and abroad. Governments rely on this borrowing to cover budget gaps and to pay for big items such as roads, schools and emergency support during crises.
Economists rarely look at the raw numbers on their own, since a large country can naturally carry more debt than a small one. Instead they compare debt with gross domestic product, the value of everything the economy produces in a year, to judge how heavy the obligation really is.
The latest report from FocusEconomics uses this ratio to identify the ten most indebted countries expected in 2025, setting the stage for a closer look at who is most at risk.
Japan and Singapore share the top spots for very different reasons
Japan is projected to have public debt worth about 242 percent of its yearly output in 2025, the highest ratio in the world. In 1990 the figure was close to half of output, but repeated stimulus packages after the burst of the asset bubble and the rising cost of caring for an aging population pushed the number up sharply.
Much of this debt is held by Japanese investors and institutions such as the Bank of Japan, which has helped keep borrowing costs low, yet analysts warn that higher interest rates over time could eat into money that might otherwise support growth.
Singapore shows that a high ratio does not always signal trouble. The city state issues large amounts of domestic debt mainly to provide safe assets for its mandatory savings system and to deepen local financial markets, while keeping budget surpluses and strong foreign currency reserves.
On paper a figure near 173 percent looks alarming, yet in practical terms it reflects a deliberate strategy rather than a looming crisis.
Conflict and isolation fuel extreme debt in Eritrea and Sudan
Eritrea is expected to carry debt of about 210 percent of its economic output in 2025, a burden built up through years of military conflict and heavy conscription.
Long service in the armed forces has pulled workers away from productive sectors, while strict state control over key industries has discouraged private investment and limited tax revenues. With few allies and a history of sanctions, the country has leaned on lenders such as China and other bilateral partners, which makes relief or restructuring harder to achieve.
Sudan faces a different mix of problems yet ends up with a similarly worrying result, with public debt forecast at about 128 percent of output. Civil conflict, economic mismanagement, sanctions and the loss of oil income after the secession of South Sudan all cut into government revenues and forced more borrowing.
That debt now crowds out spending on basic services and infrastructure, leaving the country highly vulnerable even as international initiatives try to ease the pressure.
Arab Gulf and small island economies under strain
Bahrain has seen its debt load almost triple in a little more than a decade, reaching an expected 131 percent of output in 2025. The collapse in oil prices between 2014 and 2016 hit state income hard just as military and security spending rose and the kingdom invested in projects meant to diversify the economy away from crude.
Financial support from neighboring Gulf states has helped avoid a crisis, but the combination of high social spending and political sensitivity around new taxes keeps public finances tight, a concern echoed in recent assessments by the International Monetary Fund.
The Maldives tells a different story, tied less to oil and more to tourism and big construction. Heavy borrowing for projects such as the China Maldives Friendship Bridge and the expansion of Velana International Airport, together with a one third collapse in gross domestic product when tourism shut down in 2020, pushed the debt ratio toward 125 percent.
Between 2025 and 2026 the cost of servicing this debt is expected to reach between six hundred and seven hundred million dollars a year, a large sum for a small island nation, even though strong visitor numbers and outside support are expected to keep the situation broadly stable for now according to IMF analysis of the Maldives.
Greece and Italy remain fragile pillars in the euro area
Greece climbed into the top tier of indebted countries after decades of loose public spending, widespread tax evasion and structural weaknesses that were brutally exposed by the global financial crisis of 2008.
Bailouts from international partners came with strict austerity, leading to deep recessions, high unemployment and painful cuts that many Greek households still remember when they look at their pay slips.
Since the pandemic the ratio of debt to output has fallen by more than fifty percentage points thanks to growth and tighter budget policy, yet it is still forecast around 149 percent this year and will need careful management for many years.
Italy enters 2025 with debt expected near 138 percent of output, the result of long-term low growth, rigid labor and product markets and high spending on pensions and social programs.
During the European debt crisis it was often grouped with other vulnerable economies in the bloc, but it avoided a formal rescue package and kept market access. Even so, weak economic performance and large deficits leave Italy as perhaps the most fragile big borrower in the Euro area, which matters because trouble there would quickly ripple across the single currency.
United States and France show that rich countries are not immune
Public debt in the United States has swelled to a projected 124 percent of output after years of tax cuts, rising entitlement costs and emergency responses to the global financial crisis and the Covid shock. The status of the dollar as the main reserve currency means investors worldwide still buy Treasury bonds, keeping interest costs manageable for now.
At the same time repeated political standoffs over the federal debt ceiling and the short-lived Department of Government Efficiency that tried to push rapid spending cuts have added uncertainty for households that depend on public programs.
France has run budget deficits almost every year since the mid 1970s, and the bill has now reached an expected 116 percent of output in 2025. A generous welfare state, sluggish growth and fierce public resistance to reforms, seen in movements such as the Yellow Vests movement, have all played a role in that trend.
The government that was led by François Bayrou promised moderate fiscal discipline, yet consensus forecasts still see French debt rising toward around 120 percent of output by the end of the decade, which could pose medium term risks if borrowing costs rise.
What this ranking reveals about global debt risks
Seen together, the top ten show that a high debt ratio can signal very different realities. For Japan and Singapore it reflects a combination of deliberate policy choices and strong domestic demand for government bonds, while for countries such as Eritrea, Sudan or the Maldives it points to deep structural weaknesses and exposure to shocks from war, pandemics or falling commodity prices.
The appearance of Arab states like Bahrain and Sudan on the list underlines how swings in oil revenue and political instability can quickly turn public finances from comfortable to fragile.
For ordinary people these huge numbers translate into questions about future taxes, the quality of public services and the chances that governments can invest in jobs, climate action or better transport.
Many economists argue that steady growth, credible budget plans and careful use of low interest rates can gradually reduce debt burdens, although they also warn that sudden jumps in borrowing costs could force painful cuts in countries that already feel stretched.
For the most part the new focus on debt in 2025 acts as a reminder that the real test is not only how much a country owes, but how wisely it uses the money.
The main report has been published by FocusEconomics.
