Global investment in solar photovoltaic technologies could more than double to over 70 billion euros ($ 96.62 billion) within just four years if governments aggressively support the industry with the right policies and incentives.
This is one of the major conclusions of a report published by the European Photovoltaic Industry Association and Greenpeace International that analyzed three scenarios to determine the solar PV market’s growth through 2050.
Under Solar Generation 6 report’s most ambitious «paradigm shift» scenario, where policies are maximized to stimulate increased investment and installations. With a Paradigm shift, investment in the global PV market would attract investment of 129 billion a year by 2020 before reaching 149 billion euros a year in 2050.
The strong growth in PV installations was found to be driven mainly by European countries which accounts for 70 percent of the global market.
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The study claims the share of PV in the electricity market will depend on what happens to electricity consumption in light of global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Following the paradigm shift scenario, solar PV capacity will grow through 2030 along with large emissions reductions which could explain the upward trend.
The study estimates that current global solar PV capacity could grow from over 36 gigawatts close to 180 GW by 2015. European PV capacity is also expected to increase from over 28 GW to nearly 100 GW by 2015. In total, this would save as much as 1.4 billion tons in carbon dioxide emissions globally and 220 million tons, according to the study.
PV’s role in job creation was also highlighted. Following the paradigm shift scenario, employment levels can rise to 1.37 million people by 2015, and 3.55 million in 2030. The study said that every megawatt produced and installed create 30 jobs on average.
Europe’s PV industry already employs over 300,000 people. If policy support remains strong, the study said the sector could provide jobs to over 600,000 by 2015, and has potential to further increase to 1.6 million in 2020.
Good policies found behind massive growth
The report said this scenario is achievable if governments continue the use better feed-in-tariff schemes or similar methods, in addition to making plans packaged as a “road maps” to ensure the cost of PV becomes at least as cheap as conventional power – a term known as grid parity.
Ingmar Wilhelm, President of E.P.I.A., says cost predictions show that the technology is on the “brink of an economic breakthrough” in Europe, with solar panel prices dropping 40 percent since 2005.
By 2015, the cost of solar power systems is expected to drop by an additional 40 percent, making them competitive with grid electricity prices for households in many countries of the region.
Specifically, the report urges governments to establish tariffs which guarantee investment for at least 20 years, while also regularly assessing tariff levels to ensure the market is providing fair levels of profitability and keeps pricing and related processes transparent for customers.
The world’s aging power distribution systems was cited as one of the biggest roadblocks PV projects face. The study recommends that better grid connections, most likely using smart grid technology, must also be prioritized because it gives confidence to investors by guaranteeing that the electricity produced will be sold and transported.
This works in tandem with streamlining administration procedures to make it faster for businesses to install and hook up solar PV projects on the grid.
