The report warns that this figure could sharply rise to around 9 percent by the year 2100 if the world continues on its current fossil fuel-intensive path.
Various countries in the South Asian region are looking at significant losses due to climate change, according to a new report by the Asian Development Bank.
According to the report, Assessing the Costs of Climate Change and Adaptation in South Asia, six countries – Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka – are projected to see an average economic loss of around 2 percent of their collective gross domestic product by 2050.
The report warns that this figure could sharply rise to around 9 percent by the year 2100 if the world continues on its current fossil fuel-intensive path.
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The costs of adapting to climate change in South Asia would currently be at $73 billion, or an average of 0.86 percent of its G.D.P., yearly between now and 2100 to adapt to the negative impacts. However, the cost of adapting to climate change will depend on how the global community tackles the issue.
In Bangladesh
If business as usual continues, Bangladesh could see an annual economic cost equivalent to 2 percent of its G.D.P., growing to 9.4 by 2100. These losses could be reduced to 2 percent by 2100 if mitigation actions were to be successfully taken.
The country could see its agricultural sector affected by extreme floods, cyclones, droughts, heat stress, and shorter growing seasons that could affect the country’s yields of various agricultural products.
Bangladesh’s coastal zone could also see storm surges and a possible sea level rise, affecting homes and sustenance of the country’s population.
“Vast crop losses, disappearing arable land, displaced communities, poisoned groundwater – this is not a horror tale but a very real possibility in future unless destructive global resource use patterns are changed,” said BinduLohani, A.D.B. vice-president for Knowledge Management and Sustainable Development.
“This expected rise in frequency and severity of extreme climate events calls for wide-ranging action including stepped up safety net programs for the poor who are most at risk,” Mr. Lohani said.
In India
Business as usual could mean an economic loss of 1.8 percent of annual G.D.P. by 2050 for India, growing to 8.7 percent by 2100. If mitigation and adaptation steps were taken, damage could be kept under 2 percent by the end of the century.
The country’s agricultural sector is projected to be economically critical, with the report noting changes in rainfall patterns. India’s coastline could also face serious consequences from sea level rise.
“Agriculture provides employment and livelihood opportunities to most of India’s rural population and changes in temperature and rainfall, and an increase in floods and droughts linked to climate change, would have a devastating impact on people’s food security, incomes, and lives,” noted Mr. Lohani.
In Sri Lanka
Without changes to current global behavior could lead to G.D.P. economic losses of around 1.2 percent for Sri Lanka, widening to 6.5 percent by 2100. However, losses could be limited to around 1.4 percent by the end of the century if mitigation and adaptations steps were to be taken.
Sri Lanka could be looking at a temperature rise by as much as 3 degrees Celsius by 2100, with rice crops being affected by droughts. Rainfall in the country will also be affected.
“A significant number of Sri Lankans are still dependent of sources of income that depend on rainfall such as agriculture, livestock production, and inland fisheries. Any increase in extreme storms, droughts and changing rainfall patterns could play havoc with their food security and livelihoods, including in the country’s vitally important coastal regions,” explained Mr. Lohani. – L. Polintan
