In the groups latest report, they project average annual market growth rates of about 8% for the next five years, but with a strong 2012 and a substantial dip in 2013.
The global wind power industry will be installing more than 46 GW of new wind energy capacity in 2012 and total capacity will be just under 500 GW in 2016, according to a five-year industry forecast by the Global Wind Energy Council.
In the group’s latest report, they project average annual market growth rates of about 8% for the next five years, but with a strong 2012 and a substantial dip in 2013. Total installations for the 2012-2016 period are expected to reach 255 GW, with cumulative market growth averaging just under 16%.
«For the next five years, annual market growth will be driven primarily by India and Brazil, with significant contributions from new markets in Latin America, Africa and Asia,» said Steve Sawyer, the group’s Secretary General. «While the market continues to diversify across all continents, it is at the same time plagued by continued slow economic growth and budget crises in the [Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development], as well as the continuing credit crunch.»
For the second straight year, most of the new installations were outside the organization and this trend will continue. Asia will continue to be the world’s largest market with more new installations than any other region, installing 118 GW between today and 2016, and surpassing Europe as the world leader in cumulative installed capacity sometime during 2013, ending the period with about 200 GW in total.
The Chinese market has stabilized after nearly a decade of double and triple digit growth, and will remain roughly at current levels for the next few years. India, which has 3 GW of installations in 2011, is expected to reach 5 GW in 2015.
Japan is expected to have a «near-universal rejection» of nuclear power after the March 11, 2011 tragedy, and the wind industry there is given «hope for a new beginning.»
The European market remains stable. Germany had a strong year last year, and the government’s decision to phase out all nuclear power by 2020 gives the industry a new boost. Spain had a disappointing 2011 and not much is expected in 2012, but Romania, Poland, Turkey and Sweden have «taken up the slack,» according to the report.
The North American market is expected to have a strong 2012, with Canada and Mexico installing over 1,000 MW to complement the U.S., which began the year with more than 8 GW under construction.
It now seems unlikely that the reauthorization of the U.S. Federal Production Tax Credit will happen in time to have a major impact on the 2013 market, so a substantial drop is expected in 2013 in the US market, while Canada and Mexico remain strong.
Overall, just over 50 GW is expected to be installed in North America from 2012-2016, bringing total installed capacity to just over 100 GW at the end of the period.
The Latin American market is dominated by Brazil, now becoming established as a major international market with a strong manufacturing base which could supply a growing regional market in the Southern Cone, at least, and will constitute the vast majority of the regional growth in the period out to 2016.